May 23, 2011, Churchill Club, Santa Clara, CA—the Churchill Club held their 13th annual technology forecast. This session looks at the developments most likely to become significant in the next three years.
The forecast panel consisted of moderator Tony Perkins, founder of Always On, and panelists Steve Jurvetson, managing director from Draper Fisher Jurvetson, Ajay Royan managing director from Clarium Capital, Paul Saffo, managing director of Foresight, Discern Analytics, and Aneesh Chopra, CTO of the united States.
The audience was mostly C- and V- level corporate officers between 30 and 50 years old. The format for the evening was Curt Carlson, president of SRI International presented the technologies that SRI had reviewed and described their important characteristics to the panel. The technologies highlighted are those they see as possible and might be combinations of disciplines. The panel then indicated agreement or disagreement and justified their responses. After the panel noted their responses, the audience voted on a 1-10 scale where 1 indicated total disagreement and 10 indicated total agreement.
First: age before beauty. older people are slow technology adopters. As the boomer generation moves into the senior range, they will look for easier to use technology, rather than the leading edge devices. An example is the Jitterbug phone that is only good for phone calls.
Jurvetson agreed, but cautioned that the forecast overshoots in the near term and undershoots in the long term. There are early signs that the boomer generation is impacting the market and we should consider the demographics of Florida, which is an early test case for large number so of retirees in an area. Currently seniors spend over $2 T and between $5 B and $15 B is spend on health for the aged. Few Jitterbugs are being sold. The products are not there yet, but definitely this is an area with great potential. We need VCs just for the aged.
Royan agreed that the population is demographically unavoidable, but good design is age agnostic and sophisticated products with great design will prevail. Look at Apple's products or the Wii.
Saffo argued that the increasing market for boomers as aged will not be like other "old people" because they will not buy old people products. The right term is universal design. The movement to address peoples' difficulties started with the ADA act and installation of ramps on street corners. You cannot address the boomer market as a specific target, but must design for ease of use, like the Amazon Kindle.
Second: the doctor is in. The problems with delivering expert advice that incorporates inputs from sensors, communications, and on-line video conferencing with doctors is coming. The next level of automation is going to have the Internet connected to sensors and other data sources to assist in diagnosis and care delivery.
Saffo voiced concern about the worried well and other outliers in the system. The key is sensors and their ability to put data into the system, for example continuous blood pressure monitoring. Doctors can help with this diagnosis since one out of five cases in the hands of para-professionals are misdiagnosed. Technology advances in things like handheld imaging are certainly available now.
Chopra stated the infrastructure in places like the National Library of Medicine are accessible through APIs. If the healthcare system provided money for wellness and made on-time payments, the system would quickly remove existing inefficiencies. The systems support primary care to do triage, and "grandma care" could provide trained people for triage before entry to the emergency room.
Jurvetson retorted that this is absurd, there is not enough automation and the sensors don't exist in reliable low-cost forms. The key issue is urging medical response. The point of care has to provide better care and medical people have to improve their interactions with patients.
Royan suggested the industry is still out of date. A lot of the technology exists but not implemented for ease-of-use. At the human level, bedside manners matter. The systems will improve care delivery but no artificial intelligence will displace physicians.
Three: made for me. Manufacturing is going through a revolution, for example cell phones with customized features as needed, unique products enabled by 3-D printing. New technologies are making one of manufacturing practical.
Chopra agreed and added that networking technologies and advances in robotics are reducing development times. The technology is moving to small and medium manufacturers and trends empowered by new tools and more research investment.
Saffo argued that the three-year timeframe is unrealistic for this level of personalization. 3-D printing is really only available for special situations and niche products. It is, on the other hand, an aid to design.
Jurvetson concurred that 3-D printing is great for prototypes, but too expensive for anything else. The average person does not have 3-D skills and cannot create unique products in this matter. The viable alternatives might be virtualization, workload and services become personalized and configurable products are created with the software.
Royan mentioned individual consumers will not be using 3-D printing. This technology is important for manufacturing, especially for prototypes, and for medical and military devices. Consumers will not be involved in fully customized products until much later.
Perkins noted that industrial design at places like Apple is held in high regard and customization of products is done in software.
Fourth: Pay me now. Personal information is at a crossroads with knowledge gatherers. The technology and business models are evolving so consumers can share large amounts of information with the service partners in exchange for something of value to the consumer.
Saffo stated the trend is actually give me free. Google has developed robotic cars that people can use like a normal rental car but at a reduced cost. The cars are simultaneously performing WiFi surveillance and possibly Google Street view photos while you drive.
Royan claims the analogy for the information is like banking and investing. Getting something back for your information is different from just sharing it.
Jurvetson opined that it's possible to make money on personalization. The trend is towards increasing personalization, for example Amazon has more activity in merchandising and sales. One fourth of all e-commerce happens on Black Friday. If the information markets were open and transparent they could help consumers.
Chopra suggested the trend is towards liberalizing data access, so more information can flow to the user.
Fifth: Robots. Robots are entering the homes and highways and offering assistance in providing care inside the home. Robots can take many forms, some embedded in the environment and some operating in the cloud.
Jurvetson disagreed with the trend of robots moving into the home. The first place for robots is in factories because of being cheaper than people.
Chopra supported this trend, because the government is helping co-creators by investing in R&D for home robotics.
Royan stated that robots are here to stay. Google has many software robots searching the Internet continuously. Automatons are increasingly pervasive, some are physical, some semi-autonomous, or intelligent. People are starting to depend on robots for many functions.
Saffo posited a need for a broad view to include software robots. Many things are already automated, but the next big thing in robotics is probably more than three years out.
Sixth: social networks. Friends, relations, etc. are changing through social networks into real and respect full relationships.
Saffo said the novelty is now off and cyberspace is changing into cyber biology. It is also reaction or backlash to Facebook, Twitter, and Linked-In.
Chopra noted that doctors cannot e-mail medical records. Most of the doctors adopted trusted communications for their professional work.
Jurvetson advocates ambient intimacy instead of online promiscuity. 70 percent of job rejections are due to something online.
Royan offered networks are increasing resolution to provide more real identity to people. The networks are semi-trusted.
Seventh: in-your-face augmented reality. The industry will move from telepresence to fully immersive telecommunications that are indistinguishable from reality. New technologies will enhance people's experience with the world.
Chopra agrees that it brings in higher degree of reality. The military uses it for training, and he would like to see the technology move out to other areas.
Saffo denigrated the concept since the sexy parts will not exist in the near future. Current technologies for fully immersive telepresence requires special environments. The technology will be showing up in movies and games first and will eventually move to other devices. In fact, you don't need high technology for compelling experience; just match some technology to needs.
Royan observed that the highest resolution is in person. Augmented reality is already happening in military applications.
Jurvetson noted that hyper immersive 3-D is not going to happen. 3-D glasses is one issue. More likely is some portion of this will be an overlay for conference calls. This is, however, one of the top 10 opportunities for investment and innovation.
Eighth: engineering by biologists. Engineering biology and synthesized biology will be coming up very quickly. So far, evolution has shown itself to be much more creative and robust than existing capabilities in technology. We will see bio-engineered devices and computers.
Jurvetson said the bio mimicry, learning from nature, is starting to happen. The timelines are more likely to fuel and chemicals might happen in 10 years. Memory is and solar cells will follow that and computers are much further out than 10 years. Algae to create synthetic fuel is likely to be one of the first applications of this technology.
Royan agreed that the technology is not viable in a three-time frame, and is definitely a trend that needs more love.
Saffo objected and said the trend is underway. The first synthetic cells of origin produced so the industry or technology is starting now although not yet commercial. Every 30 years we see a new technology we've gone from chemistry to physics to electronics to information and now to biologicals.
Chopra noted this is now part of the government's public policy to look at the overlaps between biology, information, and nanotechnologies.
Ninth: gift to be simple. Cyber attacks of exposed holes in software. Simplicity can help cyber defense since it is easier to defend simple software than complex.
Saffo argued this is something that will happen far in the future. Software is too complex even in the app worked which is atomizing small and simple programs.
Royan suggested instead that complex software come with simple interfaces. Encryption should be pervasive because it is simple but effective.
Jurvetson disagree saying simple software actually leads to more attacks. Simple protocols are only applicable for dumb pipes. User interfaces are very complex and mixed content and code. It's very hard to push intelligence to the edge because it increases the opportunities for hacking.
Chopra said the country cares about this issue. R&D is investigating issues like fault tolerance, mitigation against attacks and other areas to reduce effects on systems.
Tenth: reverse innovation. Communications proliferation has enabled countries to leapfrog physical infrastructure. The developing world is its greatest market for innovation and applications.
Royan suggested that globalization is Silicon Valley code for innovation. The fruit of globalization is the ability to see trends in real time and see innovators at work. This is a fundamental change from having people come here rather than seeing them in their own surroundings. The culture here makes it viable. A useful way to think of innovation is intensive takes an idea from level 0 to level I, extensive takes to level I to level n. N is defined many ways, and Silicon Valley and the United States are best at the level 0 to level I transitions.
Chopra discussed the potential of change versus capabilities. This is actually an opportunity for US inventors to solve big problems in the world, with suppliers, and education. Education needs to be at the top of the list and first in dollars of exports.
Saffo said this is not a trend it has already happened. Off shoring and other changes in company structures has been going on for some time now. Silicon Valley used to be the only place to find innovation, now it is only a node in the world.
Jurvetson claimed that markets and opportunities to address new markets are in Korea India and China. At an application layer, the Third World areas are prime for innovation but cyber society is a challenge. Going from level 0 to level one happens in many ways. For example LSD, rock 'n roll, and the HP Way were developed in the US. Now we are one of the primary 0 to 1 players, but not the only one.